Researcher and writer Sinan Ok, known for his recent work in economics and dismissed from his position at the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) in 2016 over alleged “links to an illegal organization,” spoke to ANF about the economy, the minimum wage, and the talks surrounding the solution to the Kurdish question.

What would you say are the root causes of Turkey’s economic crisis? 

One of the primary drivers of Turkey’s economic crisis is the diversion of national resources from public services to security expenditures. The Kurdish question, in particular, is a critical factor that directly impacts the economy. This issue, which is present since the times of the Ottoman Empire and later the Turkish Republic, has stymied economic growth and hindered the development of society by putting substantial budgets into security and diplomatic efforts. Since the 1990s, the internationalization of the Kurdish question meant it has shifted from a domestic challenge into a central element of Turkey’s foreign policy. 

How has the Kurdish question shaped Turkey’s domestic politics? 

The Kurdish question has profoundly influenced not only Turkey’s domestic policies but also its foreign policy priorities. In nearly all of Turkey’s major diplomatic issues, from NATO membership to EU candidacy, the Kurdish question has played a pivotal role. In the early years, the problem was dismissed under narratives denying the existence of Kurds. However, by the 1990s, Kurds began to assert themselves as active participants in this narrative. Although the peace process marked a significant turning point, the resurgence of security-centric policies after 2015 and the termination of the peace process have greatly escalated Turkey’s economic and political costs. 

How has the AKP’s approach to the Kurdish question evolved?

When the AKP first came to power, Turkey’s economic situation was dire. However, during the early 2000s, steps toward a resolution of the Kurdish issue were initiated, and the issue gained greater visibility in domestic politics. During that period, the AKP secured both domestic and international support by signaling a willingness to address the Kurdish question through reforms. Yet after 2015, the peace process was abandoned, and the government reverted to a security-focused approach. Since then, the AKP has leveraged the Kurdish question as both a tool for legitimizing its domestic authority and as a justification for asserting Turkey’s national security priorities on the international stage. 

What do the economic data and minimum wage trends reveal about Turkey’s post-2016 trajectory? 

Post-2016, Turkey’s economic crisis has deepened, and the purchasing power of the minimum wage has dropped significantly. For example, while the minimum wage exceeded $500 between 2012 and 2014, it had fallen to $347 by 2022. This decline is largely attributed to the financial burdens of Turkey’s foreign policy, particularly its military interventions in Syria. The depreciation of the minimum wage against the dollar reflects broader trends of economic uncertainty at home and diplomatic instability abroad. While the minimum wage has been adjusted to hover around $500 in 2024, its sustainability will depend on interest rate adjustments and broader economic policy shifts. 

How do you view the connection between the peace process and the economic crisis?

The peace process offered significant opportunities for economic growth. For example, during the 2012–2014 period, the minimum wage remained above $500, reflecting the positive economic impact of this initiative. However, the cessation of the peace process and the resurgence of security-focused policies after 2016 ushered in a period of profound economic crisis. This shift diminished public purchasing power and stifled the country’s long-term economic potential. Resolving the Kurdish question is not only essential for fostering peace within society, but also for unlocking avenues for economic development. If Turkey can genuinely address this issue and  the realities of the Kurdish people, the Kurdish language, and Kurdistan, it could break free from its political and economic stagnation. 

What solutions do you propose for Turkey’s future?

To overcome its economic crises and achieve long-term stability, Turkey must resolve the Kurdish question through peaceful means. This is not merely an ethnic matter but a cornerstone of the country’s democratization process. Recognizing the existence of Kurds, the Kurdish language, and Kurdistan would have transformative effects on Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies alike. Such a resolution, grounded in justice, equality, and human rights, would pave the way for broader transformation in society. Turkey’s entrenched democratic and legal crises can only be addressed through this approach. Ultimately, an honorable resolution would not only address the Kurdish question but also serve as a pathway to prosperity for the entire nation. 

What is your opinion on the role of Abdullah Öcalan?

Abdullah Öcalan has long been recognized as a key figure in the resolution process. Both domestic and international actors seem to acknowledge the critical role he could play in addressing this issue. However, the matter is not solely about one individual’s role. It also involves designing a comprehensive peace process that engages society as a whole. Should Turkey genuinely commit to resolving this issue, economic and democratic reforms could offer a brighter future for all segments of the population.