Does the Iranian regime want to be like Iraq and Syria?
It is clear that declaring war on the Kurds and attacking them will not achieve anything for the Iranian regime, on the contrary, it will bring more defeat.
On the third day of protests in several cities in Rojhilat, primarily in Banê, that started after the Iranian Mullah regime targeted and killed kolbers (border tradesmen) Qadir Behramî and Heyder Fereci in the city of Banê in the Sinê state, the Iranian regime has declared a de facto state of emergency.
These incidents should not be considered just emotional reactions to the massacring of Qadir Behramî and Heyder Fereci. It is especially prudent to point out this aspect: Lately, there have bene frequent top level military meetings between the Turkish state officials and the Iranian regime. They announced to the public that they took decisions on many points, including a joint operation. It was almost obvious that the future developments would occur within this framework. As such, with the statement he made recently, KODAR administrator Fuat Bêrîtan confirmed that Turkey and Iran have reached an agreement on various issues, including military matters.
So, the developments in Rojhilat can’t be considered independent from this concept.
Let’s put forth some reminders: First, a deal was signed to build a wall between Northern Kurdistan and Eastern Kurdistan. Afterwards, the official media of the Iranian regime announced that Turkey would receive the necessary support in this matter. But maybe the most significant was that they announced they had agreed on carrying out joint operations.
A couple of possibilities come to the fore:
First: Everybody knows that the “World War III” is in place in the Middle East right now. So, the nation states are reconsidering their own positions to prolong their lives. Thus, the de facto state of emergency and the Iranian regime stockpiling military forces in the state of Kurdistan could be to size up the preparedness and organization levels of the Kurds.
Second: The Iranian Air Force had announced that there could be an intervention against the Iranian regime. They could be planning to first suppress the organized and strong opposition within to continue their strong position in order to prevent a possible intervention. Currently, Kurds are the strongest they have ever been in Rojhilat Kurdistan, and they are highly organized. To prevent a second Rojava, they could want to stockpile military force in the Kurdistan state in the classic method.
Third: The Iranian Mullah regime could have wanted to pave the way for a military intervention by creating a foundation for provocations through the murder of Qadir Behramî and Heyder Fereci, as required by their agreements with the Turkish state. The de facto state of emergency in the Kurdistan state and the cutting off of power, phone and internet lines gives more strength to this possibility. Under such conditions that many Kurdish people have been wounded and arrested, the foundation for a military intervention grows strong. Only time will tell if this intervention will be carried out by the Iranian army alone or will they hold a joint operation with the Turkish army as per their agreement. But it is clearly visible that there is such a concept in place.
The YRK retaliated these attacks by the Iranian army yesterday. According to Iranian news agencies, two pastars (Iranian revolutionary guard) lost their lives and two others were wounded. With this, the Iranian regime, knowingly or unknowingly, is drifting into a state of war.
All in all, the Iranian regime will gain nothing by declaring war on and attacking the Kurds, on the contrary, it is apparent that they will lose a lot. It is necessary to mention two things on this matter: In 2011, the Iranian regime and the Turkish state were to simultaneously attack the Qandil Mountain. Iran launched an extensive attack on their front and this attack continued for 3 months. But on the other hand, the Turkish state didn’t uphold the promises they made to the Iranian regime and abandoned the Iranian regime on the field. They aimed to achieve gains by pitting the two sides against each other. In these attacks, the Iranian army failed to take even one hill from the YRK in three months. In the end, with a reciprocal ceasefire the Iranian regime achieved their desires.
With this reminder, I would like to reiterate that the only thing the Iranian regime will achieve is a repeat of their mistakes. They need to see that fighting with Kurds will not bring them gains, but will cost them great losses. Their only option is to achieve a just domestic peace with the Kurds. If they don’t, the Iranian regime will not be able to save themselves from turning into Iraq and Syria.