The triple guaranteership Turkey, Russia and Iran set up last year has exposed the turbulence that occurred with the US-Russia deal as new information comes in from Aleppo and its surroundings. Meanwhile, residents of several villages to the west of Aleppo have been clashing with Nusra (i.e. HTŞ) gangs for three days with Turkey orchestrating attacks.

VILLAGERS: “WE WILL NOT ALLOW INVADERS”

With Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syrian Baath regime coming to an agreement, Turkish soldiers made a deal with the HTŞ (Jabhat Al Nusra) and settled first in Idlib, then in the Kabal Sheikh Barakat, Samaan Citadel and Dar Ta Izzat to the north of Aleppo and Atme and Selwa villages in Idlib to the west, making preparations for an attack on Efrîn and Shehba. Turkey built outposts in these areas they invaded and made plans for the invasion and attacks on Efrîn and Shehba, but they realized they couldn’t invade Efrîn and Shehba with the villages, towns and areas they settled their forces and gangs in. They also wanted to settle in the Kaftan Jabal, Ayn Jara, Al-Atarib and Kafr Naya villages to the west of Aleppo and east of Idlib to expand the areas they planned to invade.

Sources say villagers from Ayn Jara, Kaftan Jabal, Al-Atarib and Kafr Naya objected to Turkey settling in and said, “We don’t want invaders in our villages and lands, we will not let Turkey and Iran invading our lands.” As Turkish army forces pushed to enter the villages, the villagers took up arms and later on announced that they will be fighting against invading forces under the name of the Popular Movement.

Sources say the villagers’ decision was also influenced by their objection to the attacks on Efrîn.

TURKEY LET HTŞ LOOSE ON THEM

As a response to the villagers objecting and saying they won’t allow an invasion of their villags, then taking up arms under the name the Popular Movement, Turkey let HTŞ (Jabhat Al Nusra) loose on these villages 3 days ago. Since then, the armed villagers from Ayn Jara, Kaftan Jabal, Al-Atarib and Kafr Naya and various other villages who call themselves the Popular Movement have been in clashes. HTŞ gangs want to invade villages to open the area for Turkish army forces, and the villagers in the Popular Movement defend their lands.

TURKISH STATE COULDN’T RISK IT

Sources say the Turkish state can’t risk pushing in on these villages like they entered Jarablus, Bab and most recently Idlib in agreement with Nusra, and the reason is given as follows: People fighting HTŞ (i.e. Nusra) in these villages are not acting in the name of any given group, they are villagers who have taken up arms to fight. So an attack by the Turkish state will be an attack on civilians and villagers, thus they don’t want to engage their own army forces but set HTŞ and other gangs allied to them in the area on attacks.

NUREDDİN ZENGİ IN THE MIDDLE

The villages in question are where the Nureddin Zengi gangs (who have engaged in all kinds of cooperation with Turkey) are based. Sheikh Teyfik Shahabettin (responsible for the Nureddin Zengi group) is from Kaftan Jabal himself. The Nureddin Zengi group acted together with Turkey in Jarablus, Bab and most recently Idlib, but are reported to have remained neutral in the clashes between armed villagers and HTŞ (i.e. Nusra) gangs in the villages in question for the last three days. There are other reports that claim they are helping the armed villagers gathered under the name the Popular Movement. The more plausible version seems to be that the Nureddin Zengi group has remained neutral, as villagers say they will push them out of the region as well if the Nureddin Zengi group would stand with HTŞ and Turkey and attack the villages. The group and their leader Sheikh Tevfik understand this danger, and seem to be remaining neutral because of it.

TURKEY’S PLANS FOR INVASION TANKED

With this development in the western villages of Aleppo, Turkey’s invasion plans against Efrîn and Shehba have suffered a great hit. But the damage is not limited to their plans on Efrîn and Shehba, the invaded areas and plans for further invasion in Idlib have also come under threat. This process opens the way to another process that could reach Jarablus, Bab and villages invaded by Turkey around Shehba. Arabs, Turkmens, other peoples and clans in Northern Syria had issued statements and protested Turkey’s invasions before, but an objection in the form of residents of several villages directly taking up arms and fighting is a first. This signals the possibility of similar armaments in other areas invaded by Turkey in the future.

Simultaneously to these developments, signs that Turkey, Iran and Russia’s triple guaranteer system and the Astana talks are reaching an end become clearer in reciprocal statements. Aside from these political and diplomatic developments, there is a new development on the field: The deal between the HTŞ and the Syrian Baath regime. The same reliable source claims that a committee including representatives from the Syrian Baath regime, Iran and Russia met with HTŞ gang leaders with Turkey’s mediation and the Idlib-Aleppo road has been opened as part of a deal made in this meeting. The Idlib Aleppo road is known to be under HTŞ control in Hama for a long time. The deal reportedly includes the opening of this road for traffic under the HTŞ gangs’ supervision.