Demidenko: shelter defence system linked to Iran
Demidenko: shelter defence system linked to Iran
The missile shelter defence system planned to be established in Turkey will be a part of the military and political surrounding against Iran and there have been serious negotiations on it just before the Lisbon summit, said Sergey Demidenko, the director of the Moscow based Strategic Researches and Analysis Institute.
Demidenko says unlike the past Turkey performs the tendency for being eastern and he shows the economic interests and energy transport as the main reasons for it.
The Director of the Institute Demidenko who is observing the Middle East and West Europe very closely says AKP’s difference remained in rhetoric and its policy on the Kurds is gradually turning into the policies of the former governments.
* Do you think what are the aim and the objective of the strategic missile shelters to be set up in Turkey?
- This air defence system is related to the Iranian policy of the West. It is a way of surrounding Iran, military and politically. Despite the statements of Obama which he made after came to power he has not given up his anti-Iran policies and he will not either. On other words the US has not changed its Iran policy despite the invasion of Iraq or the other conflicts they have faced. However, in terms of methods there are some changes which might be taken into consideration. During the time of republicans and Bush military methods were prominent. But now there are long term scenarios. With these long-term methods they aim at weakening Iran in which they use cultural interventions and economical sanctions, embargos. On one hand, there is an international blockade taking place and the missile shelter in Turkey is a part of it. Of course, military methods remain an option and will be resorted if there is consensus on it.
On the other hand USA cannot continue without Iran. It needs Iran in order to control the Shiites in Iraq, Lebanon and the whole region. Although a military intervention is not a question for the time it is still an option.
TURKEY IS ORIENTALISING
* Do you think what route will Turkey follow in relation to missile shelter and under which circumstances it will accept it?
- Turkey is considering itself as the super power of the region and wants to moderate between the West and the East. Especially Davutoglu is conducting this policy with his rhetoric “zero problem”. On one hand Turkey is keeping its desire to be Western, European but on the other hand it has started the process of orientalising. It wants to play the leading role in the Middle East and it is decisive in its Palestine and Iraq policies. This however remains in rhetoric as there is not a concrete practical process. It continues its relations both with the West and the East.
In this regard Turkey will accept the missile shelter but it will ask something in return which will also be accepted by Iran. This might have economical dimension. Turkey can be a moderator between the West and Iran. Turkey is also trying to keep the balance so that it can empower its role in the Islamic world and can get rid of its “sold to the West” image.
* It there a change in terms of NATO-Russia relations? How come the relations have been softening?
- I think it is too early to talk about a change in terms of NATO-Russia relations. NATO has been established as block against Russia and it remains so. Moreover, there is no power in the East which could resist against NATO. The only power who could defy against NATO is Russia. Although there have been some positive steps recently they have not reached a common point therefore such an intimacy is out of question. Moreover, I think in terms of general issues the tension might get higher.
IF RUSSIA TURNS ITS BACK IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR IRAN
* If NATO and Russia get closer how will this intimacy affect Iran? Will Afghanistan, North Korea and Iran be the main targets?
- I don’t think it will ever happen but if you are asking about the results of such a possibility then of course intimacy between NATO and Russia will affect Iran at most. I don’t mean only military but also the economic embargo. Then Iran might stay alone as it will affect its energy policies. Iran is a country which insists on its interest and not easy to re-conciliate with.
Due to the current economic embargo Iran could not start producing gas despite the fact that it has the biggest gas reserves in the world. And if Russia stands by the West then it will get worse for Iran. Energy is the only power that Iran has. Its all technological work aims at military which is improving but machine industry and agriculture are in a tight corner.
AKP IS ACTING LIKE FORMER GOVERNMENTS
* How do you see the current situation of the Kurdish problem in Turkey?
- Although there are some improvements the Kurdish politicians are facing a great suppression. When Erdogan speaks to Barzani he greets him in Kurdish, the government officials are using Kurdish but the Kurdish politicians from the region when they speak Kurdish they are arrested. In other words Kurdish is forbidden to the Kurds.
Kurdish region is deliberately left underdeveloped. Erdogan was welcomed in the Kurdistan and he gave several promises during his electoral campaign but he never keeps his promises. He especially failed to take steps in terms of socio-economic field. There was a program in 1990’s for the region but it stopped after Turgut Ozal was assassinated.
As AKP made promises but forget about them after the elections PKK gains power. AKP is going back to rhetoric of the former governments. It means Erdogan is doing like what Demirel, Ecevit and Ciller. The use of violence and pressure is increasing. They are modernizing their military technology used in the region and they are using village guards to deepen the conflict between the Kurds themselves. But there are no concrete steps to solve the Kurdish problem.
THE PKK IS DEFENCING THE PEOPLE
PKK is getting more powerful in the region because the PKK is giving voice to the demands and the pains of the people in the region. It is sort of defending the people in the region, it is resisting against the Turkish state. The people in the region are the real victims of the military operations conducted by the Turkish army. As long as this approach continues the Kurdish problem cannot be solved. Erdogan is repeating the statements of the former governments but the blood is shedding since 1980’s and it could not solve the problem.
The situation of the Kurds in Iran is not like Turkey. The problems of the minorities in Iran are suspended without being solved. Not only the Kurds but Balujis and Azerbaijanis are in the same condition. The Kurdish regions are underdeveloped. The only positive side of Iran is that the Kurdish identity has never been denied like it is in Turkey.
Demidenko says unlike the past Turkey performs the tendency for being eastern and he shows the economic interests and energy transport as the main reasons for it.
The Director of the Institute Demidenko who is observing the Middle East and West Europe very closely says AKP’s difference remained in rhetoric and its policy on the Kurds is gradually turning into the policies of the former governments.
* Do you think what are the aim and the objective of the strategic missile shelters to be set up in Turkey?
- This air defence system is related to the Iranian policy of the West. It is a way of surrounding Iran, military and politically. Despite the statements of Obama which he made after came to power he has not given up his anti-Iran policies and he will not either. On other words the US has not changed its Iran policy despite the invasion of Iraq or the other conflicts they have faced. However, in terms of methods there are some changes which might be taken into consideration. During the time of republicans and Bush military methods were prominent. But now there are long term scenarios. With these long-term methods they aim at weakening Iran in which they use cultural interventions and economical sanctions, embargos. On one hand, there is an international blockade taking place and the missile shelter in Turkey is a part of it. Of course, military methods remain an option and will be resorted if there is consensus on it.
On the other hand USA cannot continue without Iran. It needs Iran in order to control the Shiites in Iraq, Lebanon and the whole region. Although a military intervention is not a question for the time it is still an option.
TURKEY IS ORIENTALISING
* Do you think what route will Turkey follow in relation to missile shelter and under which circumstances it will accept it?
- Turkey is considering itself as the super power of the region and wants to moderate between the West and the East. Especially Davutoglu is conducting this policy with his rhetoric “zero problem”. On one hand Turkey is keeping its desire to be Western, European but on the other hand it has started the process of orientalising. It wants to play the leading role in the Middle East and it is decisive in its Palestine and Iraq policies. This however remains in rhetoric as there is not a concrete practical process. It continues its relations both with the West and the East.
In this regard Turkey will accept the missile shelter but it will ask something in return which will also be accepted by Iran. This might have economical dimension. Turkey can be a moderator between the West and Iran. Turkey is also trying to keep the balance so that it can empower its role in the Islamic world and can get rid of its “sold to the West” image.
* It there a change in terms of NATO-Russia relations? How come the relations have been softening?
- I think it is too early to talk about a change in terms of NATO-Russia relations. NATO has been established as block against Russia and it remains so. Moreover, there is no power in the East which could resist against NATO. The only power who could defy against NATO is Russia. Although there have been some positive steps recently they have not reached a common point therefore such an intimacy is out of question. Moreover, I think in terms of general issues the tension might get higher.
IF RUSSIA TURNS ITS BACK IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR IRAN
* If NATO and Russia get closer how will this intimacy affect Iran? Will Afghanistan, North Korea and Iran be the main targets?
- I don’t think it will ever happen but if you are asking about the results of such a possibility then of course intimacy between NATO and Russia will affect Iran at most. I don’t mean only military but also the economic embargo. Then Iran might stay alone as it will affect its energy policies. Iran is a country which insists on its interest and not easy to re-conciliate with.
Due to the current economic embargo Iran could not start producing gas despite the fact that it has the biggest gas reserves in the world. And if Russia stands by the West then it will get worse for Iran. Energy is the only power that Iran has. Its all technological work aims at military which is improving but machine industry and agriculture are in a tight corner.
AKP IS ACTING LIKE FORMER GOVERNMENTS
* How do you see the current situation of the Kurdish problem in Turkey?
- Although there are some improvements the Kurdish politicians are facing a great suppression. When Erdogan speaks to Barzani he greets him in Kurdish, the government officials are using Kurdish but the Kurdish politicians from the region when they speak Kurdish they are arrested. In other words Kurdish is forbidden to the Kurds.
Kurdish region is deliberately left underdeveloped. Erdogan was welcomed in the Kurdistan and he gave several promises during his electoral campaign but he never keeps his promises. He especially failed to take steps in terms of socio-economic field. There was a program in 1990’s for the region but it stopped after Turgut Ozal was assassinated.
As AKP made promises but forget about them after the elections PKK gains power. AKP is going back to rhetoric of the former governments. It means Erdogan is doing like what Demirel, Ecevit and Ciller. The use of violence and pressure is increasing. They are modernizing their military technology used in the region and they are using village guards to deepen the conflict between the Kurds themselves. But there are no concrete steps to solve the Kurdish problem.
THE PKK IS DEFENCING THE PEOPLE
PKK is getting more powerful in the region because the PKK is giving voice to the demands and the pains of the people in the region. It is sort of defending the people in the region, it is resisting against the Turkish state. The people in the region are the real victims of the military operations conducted by the Turkish army. As long as this approach continues the Kurdish problem cannot be solved. Erdogan is repeating the statements of the former governments but the blood is shedding since 1980’s and it could not solve the problem.
The situation of the Kurds in Iran is not like Turkey. The problems of the minorities in Iran are suspended without being solved. Not only the Kurds but Balujis and Azerbaijanis are in the same condition. The Kurdish regions are underdeveloped. The only positive side of Iran is that the Kurdish identity has never been denied like it is in Turkey.
