Elections’ possible scenarios
What results could be expected
The 24 June elections in Turkey contain all possible risks and democratic options.
There are many possible scenarios for these elections.
On the one hand there is an outcome where fascism, uncertainty and chaos could prevail and on the other and democracy and hope for peace.
Erdoğan's victory: According to this scenario, Erdoğan will win the presidential election and the AKP will preserve the majority of seats in Parliament.
In this case, thanks to the constitutional referendum held on April 2017, the President will concentrate all power in his hands. Erdoğan will drag Turkey to an even darker period that could take an even more macabre direction.
Second round: According to this scenario, Erdoğan will be forced to run the second round and in this case his election will be as uncertain as ever.
In such a case, the opposition joining their votes represents one of Erdoğan's great fears.
The opposition candidate, who will contest the second round, has a real chance to win against
Erdoğan if the other candidates support him/her.
Experts and opinion polls appeared to be favouring this scenario as the most likely.
Pyrrhus victory: Pyrrhus victory is a half victory. In this scenario, Erdoğan will win the presidential election but the AKP will lose the majority in Parliament.
In this case, Turkey could be dragged into a deep uncertainty and new elections are among the possible outcomes in such a scenario.
Erdoğan and AKP’ defeat: In this scenario, Erdoğan will lose the presidential elections and the AKP the majority in parliament.
This result will represent ‘the dream coming true’ for the opposition and the end of Erdoğan regime.
However, this result also carries with it great dangers. Erdoğan could not accept this result and unleash a new chaotic period.
Fraudulent election: This is the scenario which worries the opposition the most. And unfortunately is gaining importance.
The election campaign has not been carried out in a fair and transparent environment. Media, civil servants, soldiers, police and judiciary, all worked for Erdoğan.
This has been so, especially in Kurdish cities that will determine the fate of the elections: here the irregularities and illegalities begun with the transfer and merging of the polling stations.
Erdoğan ‘cheat and take’ scenario is a possible one. In such a situation again, what awaits Turkey is "uncertainty" and "chaos".