Lyon II University faculty member and Washington Institute fellow Middle East expert Fabrice Balanche published an analysis in Le Figaro on the aggreement signed among the regime and the groups they are in conflict with by the mediation of Russia, Iran and Turkey. Balanche underlined that there is a risk that the Kurds may be sacrificed as a result of the Russian-Turkish cooperation.

The analysis was published with the title “Syria: Why the ceasefire doesn’t announce the end of the war” and in it Balanche argues that Turkey has joined the Russia-Iran alliance in a tactical move and that the ceasefire was “so far a success”.

Balanche pointed out that the ceasefire doesn’t include regions under Fatah Al Sham (previously known as Al Nusra) control and foresaw Bashar Asad staying in power until 2021, and stated that the “withdraw” of Asad mentioned in the agreement was “just to lure the West and the Gulf countries to the table”.

Balanche stated that the Ahrar Al Sham gang was added to the agreement with Turkey’s imposition and the radicals in the gangs are opposed to it. Balanche foresaw that the agreement may increase the divide and divisions among the anti-regime groups, primarily Ahrar Al Sham, and underlined that that was in line with the military goals of the Asad regime.

KURDS MAY BE A VICTIM OF THE RUSSIAN-TURKISH COOPERATION

The French Middle East expert pointed out that the Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s position as the architect of the peace process in Syria got stronger, while Iran stood back and changed the power balance in Syria with their military presence.

Fabrice Balanche said the agreement wasn’t against future operations in Al Nusra-controlled Idlib province and stated that similarly, Turkey might continue their invasion attacks on Bab.

Balanche said the agreement didn’t say anything on the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and that might mean that after Bab is taken by Turkey and their allied forces, Manbij might be attacked.

Balanche stated that the Russian-Turkish cooperation might cost the Kurds, and cited the Asad regime’s opposition to an autonomous Kurdish region. Balanche wrote that after Aleppo was taken back, Asad wants YPG to leave the neighborhoods they control.

In his analysis, Balanche argued that the groups Turkey supports aren’t expected to fight the regime in the north of Aleppo and commented: “Turkey pays them (money) to take Al Bab and limit the pressure by the PYD-allied Syrian Democratic Forces who aim to join the Kurdish lands.”

RUSSIA AND THE REGIME PREPARING FOR A NEW ATTACK

Fabrice Balanche concluded with saying that the Syrian regime bought more time for new attacks every time a ceasefire was declared by the leadership of Russia, and the latest example for that was the regime taking Palmyra back from ISIS in March after the ceasefire in February. Balanche commented that Russia declared they will withdraw their troops in March and “in Russian” that means a rotation of units and equipment for a new large-scale attack.