Important developments are taking place in the Afrin-Azaz-Sheikh Meqsoud triangle after the declaration of the North Syria Federation and the Minbic operation. The town of Al Rai, located within the Afrin-Azaz-Aleppo triangle, was handed over to gangs affiliated to the Sultan Murad Brigade, Hemze Battalion, Battalion 99 etc. However, ISIS gangs broke this agreement and retook the town of Al Rai, and even advanced towards Azaz and the Düdyen-Mare-Ehras triangle.

After these developments, many thought that Azaz would be handed over to ISIS gangs. In order to find out if this is the case, one would have to analyze the developments in the region step by step.

AL RAİ (ÇOBANBEY)

The town of Al Rai is located at a distance of 3-5 km away from the Turkish border. It has a population of 25 thousand people and is an Arab majority town with Kurdish and Turkmen minorities. The Ba’athist regime is the architect of the town’s ethnic composition.

Ethnic tensions often rose among the Arab, Kurdish and Turkmen communities in the town due to the Ba’athist regime’s history of altering the demographics of the region. These tensions have become clearer during the Syrian war.

Hatred and animosity became more prevalent in the region with the Free Syrian Army and peaked with Al Nusra, Ahrar Al Sham, ISIS, Sultan Murad Brigade and Hemze Battalion. Arabs and Turkmens in the region forced the Kurdish population to migrate and massacred those who resisted forced migration.

AL RAİ HANDED OVER TO SNC AFFILIATED GROUPS

In an effort orchestrated by the Turkish state, Al Rai (Çobanbey) was handed over to the Syrian National Council (SNC) affiliated gang groups such as Sultan Murad Brigade, Hemze Battalion, Battalion 99 etc. last week. The Turkish state seems to have convinced the international community about the rule of these gangs groups in and around Al Rai. Back then, Turkey had facilitated the retreat of ISIS from the town after a series of meetings. As a result of these efforts, ISIS handed Al Rai over to SNC affiliated gang groups, whose first act in the town was to pillage and loot valuable goods and historical artifacts. Many of these looted goods were taken to Turkey and sold on the black market.

Stealing valuable goods and historical artifacts and selling them in Turkey have been important sources of revenue for SNC affiliated gang groups. The Turkish state allows this trade because the smuggling of historical artifacts, along with the illegal sales of petroleum, has greatly benefited its economy.

ISIS GANGS RETAKE AL RAI

ISIS surprised the SNC affiliated gangs such as Sultan Murad Brigade, Hemze Battalion and Battalion 99 as it retook Al Rai within 30 hours. ISIS killed nearly 200 gangs during this take over and confiscated a significant amount of guns, ammunition and military vehicles.

ISIS GANGS’ NEW TARGET IS DÜDYEN

After retaking Al Rai, ISIS gangs began to advance on Düdyen, which has a population of 3 thousand people. Düdyen used to have a Kurdish population, but many Kurds fled the town during the beginning of the war in Syria. Local sources report that ISIS has been advancing on the Düdyen-Mare-Ehras triangle located 10 kilometers to the south of Al Rai.

The Turkish state has been orchestrating exchanges among jihadist gang groups in order to prevent the SDF and the Minbic Military Assembly from uniting Afrin and Kobanê cantons. This strategy forms the basis of Turkish support to the aforementioned gangs, and aims to prevent further YPG, YPJ, and SDF advances in the region.

WILL AZAZ BE HANDED OVER TO ISIS GANGS?

Turkey has been updating its policies that aim to prevent the unification of Afrin and Kobanê cantons, and is using SNC affiliated Turkmen and ENKS groups to legitimize its actions. As part of this strategy, the Turkish state wants to place SNC affiliated gangs in Jarablus currently under ISIS occupation. The SNC affiliated Turkmen and ENKS gangs are attacking SDF forces in Sheikh Meqsud, Afrin and Azaz, and receive international support through the train-equip programs of the US.

Turkey has been fighting for the rule of ISIS, SNC and ENKS in the region since the beginning of the war in Syria, and uses these gangs as its counter-guerrilla forces. The Turkish state uses its Kilis city as its operation base for organizing these gangs, and the heads of the Turkish Intelligence Agency and the Army have recently met in Kilis, Antep and Ankara as part of these efforts to organize and orchestrate the gangs.

After a series of meetings with ISIS, SNC and ENKS gangs in Kilis, representatives of the Turkish state convinced ISIS representatives to withdraw from Al Rai. As part of this agreement, gangs from the Sultan Murad Brigade, Hemze Battalion, Battalion 99 etc. were set to take over Al Rai. The meeting in Kilis was held as part of the Turkish state’s precaution against the declaration of North Syria Federation, and is an updated effort to prevent the unification of Rojava cantons. The Turkish state’s efforts show its policies regarding the east and west of Euphrates, and focuses on the Jarablus-Al Rai-Azaz triangle. At their core, the meetings held in Kilis, Antep and Ankara aim to orchestrate how Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Barzani’s KDP could control the 98 kilometers-wide region from Jarablus to Azaz.

In the meeting in Kilis, participants agreed on who would take control of Azaz after Al Rai. Accordingly, Al Nusra and Ahrar Al Sham would partially retreat and groups such as Sultan Murad Brigade, Hemze Battalion, Battalion 99, 16th Division and Ahrar Syria would take control of Azaz.

Gangs advanced 25 kilometers to the east of Azaz towards Al Rai (Çobanbey) under the protection of the Turkish Army’s artillery fire, but could not come to an agreement on who would control the Çobanbey Border Gate. Then, ISIS gangs broke the previous agreement, retook Al Rai and began to advance on Azaz. Turkey had been supporting gang groups through the Kilis-Azaz border gate and wanted to give them the control of Çobanbey border gate in order to open the Mare-Bab-Aleppo corridor for the gangs in Aleppo under the attack of the regime supported by Russia. However, the gangs supported by Turkey are more of a looting squad rather than a military force, and could not resist ISIS.

TURKISH STATE USES THE GANGS IN ORDER TO CREATE A BUFFER ZONE

Turkish President Erdoğan and other AKP officials expressed their desire to create a buffer zone in the Shehba region numerous times. However, the region’s residents and international powers did not support their plans. Erdoğan and the AKP then began to publicly discuss their plans to ‘create a city for refugees’ in order to prevent the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from advancing on Jarablus and Mınbiç. The international community rejected this plan as well, but Erdoğan and the AKP continue to work towards their goal. Despite the ceasefire in Syria, gang groups supported by Erdoğan and the AKP have been launching violent attacks on Aleppo and the Shehba region, and the Turkish state has been attacking SDF and Jaysh Al-Thuwar forces in Afrin and Azaz in order to support the gangs.

Anadolu News Agency (AA), Erdoğan’s special war operations unit, has recently claimed that the buffer zone was once again an option and the aforementioned gangs would help Turkey create a buffer zone in the region. If Turkey wants to establish a secure zone on its border, it can do so with the support of the SDF and the international coalition. The area between Azaz and Jarablus is the only place on the Turkish border that is under ISIS occupation, and no force other than the SDF can fight ISIS effectively. However, the Turkish state continues to work towards keeping ISIS on its border and prevent the unification of Afrin and Kobanê cantons.