On 18 March Afrin was occupied entirely by the Turkish state and its ally mercenaries in a campaign which began with the opening of the airspace by Russia on 20 January.

Turkey had launched its occupation campaign counting of a certain support from Russia, after agreements on common interests. When things didn’t go as planned, Russia gave Turkey several deadlines.

Despite the very heavy bombing and violence, splendid resistance was mounted by Afrin people and by the YPG/YPJ (People’s and Women’s Defense Units). From 18 March hundreds of thousands of people were forced out from their house and migrated to the Shehba area. Inside Afrin, the YPG resistance stepped into a new phase, while Russia-Turkey dirty alliance was exposed again.

In order to increase negotiation and talks Russian delegations have been seen going to Afrin. It is understood these talks are centred on common interests between Turkey and Russia that established joint observation posts in Afrin, which may result in Turkey being allowed to stay permanently in Afrin and at the same time continue with its demographic change plans and attempt to break the resistance in Shehba.

Russian delegations in Afrin

Reliable sources indicate that the Russian delegations intensified their visits to Afrin in the past week. Sources point out that the delegations enter from Hatay (in Turkey) rather than from Syria. It is understood that of the two Russian delegations that visited Afrin last week, one was made up of 20 people and the other of 6.

This recent increase in the Russian delegations’ visits, has been hidden from the public, which is why speculations and fears that these visits have to do with striking a deal with Turkey over its occupation of Afrin are also increasing.

Russia and the Syrian regime prepare for an operation in the south of Idlib, while Turkey continues its preparations for Idlib in Afrin.

At least 60,000 mercenaries in Afrin

One of the reasons why Russia gave the green light to Turkish occupation of Afrin is the fact that thousands of mercenaries have been brought to Afrin by Turkey. Russia want to use them against the al-Nusra Front and then disarm them, in pursuant to an article of the agreement between the two sides.

The Turkish state and Russia put this plan into practice with the occupation of Afrin. The Turkish state has so far brought to Afrin over 60,000 mercenaries and their families from various parts of Syria.

These people, the majority of which are families of the Arab mercenaries, were initially settled in the center of Afrin. Later, more people were settled in the districts of Jindires and Rajo.

Earlier, 95% of the indigenous peoples of Afrin were Kurds. The press also reported news of a camp set up in the village of Muhammadiyah (in Jindires district of Afrin) by the Turkish government to host families and mercenaries coming from Eastern Ghouta.

The fact that the Turkish state has not yet transferred people to Bilbile could be explained with the fact that it wants to use Bilbile for a different goal.

Russia and Turkey’s common interests

Changing the demography of Afrin currently represents the key point of the plan between Turkey and Russia.

Russia wants Turkey to empty areas such as Damascus and Ghouta from mercenaries, and Turkey in return asks Russia to help with its plans to change the demography of Afrin and thus legitimise Turkish presence in Afrin.

It seems that Russia and Turkey have agreed to change the demography of Afrin while at the same time they are working to set up joint observation points in Afrin.

According to the information received from our sources, a Turkish delegation held a meeting with the Russians in Aleppo and the Russians went to Kafar Jana.

A new dirty agreement

Trustworthy sources say that after the talks between the Turkish and Russian delegations, the plan to change the demography of Afrin has been confirmed and a new agreement has been reached.

According to this agreement, a substantial group of mercenary families and groups of Arab and Turkmen people will be officially transferred to Afrin.

The core of this plan is the Arab population to be brought from outside. The Kurdish city of Afrin will be then presented as an Arab city.

In order to implement this plan, 80 villages will be prepared to house Arab, Turkmen refugees and mercenaries.

It is understood that demography will be changed in Kafar Jana, Naza, Chama, Umera, Bilbile, Rajo, Shiye and Jindires.

Likewise people will be planted in the area extending from Jindires to Etme in İdlib. Once again, strategic villages will fall in the hands of Turkey. On the basis of this agreement, it is understood that first Russian police forces will enter the villages surrounding Afrin. Subsequently these villages will be shared through a Turkey-Russia agreement.

Shehba on the spot

But Afrin is not the only issue accelerating and giving way to negotiations between Turkey and Russia. This dirty agreement in fact will also affect the thousands who had to migrate to Shehba from Afrin.

The policy of the Turkish state towards the people who were forced to migrate from Afrin to Shehba has changed. Our sources indicate that this policy change happened after recommendation of the Russian delegations.

According to the plan, the people of Afrin now concentrated in Shehba where they immediately began to organise cannot be allowed to continue to organise. It is necessary therefore to isolate those who are working with the people to organise them and make them stand up. This will be done, according to the plan, through threats of occupation of Shehba and propaganda warfare, making living conditions more difficult and thus force them to return to Afrin.

It is clear that the illegal so-called “Local Afrin Council” set up by ENKS in Antep to govern Afrin by the Turkish occupying forces, plays an important role in this special war.

This is why the occupying forces want to make life conditions in Shehba more difficult in order to force the people to go back to Afrin, where - the propaganda goes - people will be safe.

This plan is aimed at breaking the organized stance and resistance of the people of Afrin in Shehba, emptying Shehba and thus legitimise, thanks to Russia, the Turkish occupation of this area in the future.

The ultimate aim is to cut off any connection between Afrin and the other Rojava cantons, which is why it is to be expected that a new wave of attacks will be launched against the resistance of the YPG/YPJ.