Iran and Turkey after new plans

MSD Co-chair Ilham Ehmed stated that: “Turkey and Iran are in a competition, they are fighting to get ahead, but they act together in some issues as well.”

Syrian Democratic Council (MSD) Co-chair Ilham Ehmed’s article published in the Özgürlükçü Demokrasi newspaper and translated by ANF English service is as follows:

There have been some diplomatic meetings between Turkey and several of the region’s states. Syria, Northern Syria and the PKK were on the agenda. The statements made by all parties after the meetings were full of contradictions. It is very clear that there is an accord between Turkey and Iran in the Northern Syria issue. Idlib and Efrîn are hot topics for both countries. Iran needs Islamic groups for a while longer, while Turkey needs to open the Idlib and Azaz corridor. Turkey wants to settle in Syria and expand the area they control, and to that end they are provoking Arabs against Kurds. They have attempts against the YPG in Til Rifat in both political and military senses. In this framework, they put a lot of pressure on the Russians and told them, “Either we will attack Til Rifat together, or if you’re not doing that, we will attack Efrîn.”

They stated that if this happens, Idlib will be under Al Nusra control. A little while ago, Turkey was saying that Iran’s Shia Crescent project was very dangerous and claiming that the Kurds were serving this project. That way, they wanted to cast doubt over the front against ISIS, cut off support for YPG and become permanent on these lands. Turkey saw that Russia did not meet all their demands and then approached Iran against the Northern Syrian Federation.

Iran does not support a democratic change in Syria. They are working to have the regime achieve permanency. They derive their own legitimacy through the regime in Syria and they have grand plans over the two forces. One of these is the SDF, and the other is the armed groups acting in the name of opposition. Everybody knows that plans against the SDF end up with many forces and states suffering losses in the end. Because animosity against the SDF strengthens ISIS. Every country knows that they will suffer themselves if they support such a plan.

The regime is at a stage that they are unable to make correct decisions. They suffer interventions from all sides. And they themselves don’t have a democratic project. They are playing secret and varied tricks in areas leaving their control. That way, they want to create the impression with the people that they will be back, they say, “we gave these places to these people, we will take them back”. Some desperate circles believe these and they are afraid that they will be immediately massacred if such a thing happens. Obviously the regime doesn’t just have a problem with armed groups. But the problem is growing and it is impossible to turn back now. If the regime takes change as a basis, maybe it could be possible to overcome the crisis. Other than that, there is the risk of Syria breaking apart, and Turkey knows this, so they make new plans every day to not leave Syrian territory.

There is word that the opposition is preparing for a new negotiation process. Their first meeting was held in Riyad and it failed. It is understood that Turkey will not allow for a negotiation process different from those before to have continued influence over the opposition. The opposition has one way ahead of them to have an identity, and that is to get out of Turkey’s influence, to return to the country and act together with the Northern Syria project. Other than this, they will no longer have any weight left. Turkey is drifting away from them and approaching the regime.

Approaches making the Kurds out to be invaders are meaningless. Now, everybody believes in the Kurds. It’s true for the US, and for Russia. Because the Kurds are seen as a factor of change and renewal in the region, as the dynamism and engine force. This is a fact. Everybody says, “Why are you speaking to all of Syria, why do you determine opinions,” but everybody also knows that that isn’t true. Kurds can propose a project for the future of Syria like everybody else, and Kurds are fulfilling this duty.

If the Syrian people doesn’t do so, it is apparent that they will be facing a great catastrophy. The regime doesn’t see this. They have blinders on. Turkey and Iran are in a competition, they are fighting to get ahead, but they act together in some issues as well.

People say, “This is a matter of constitution and the people should decide,” about the Federal system in Syria. That is correct. We say that this won’t come to pass with the old law, and that a true change is needed, with true negotiations. If there are no negotiations, everybody will act from where they stand and will try to make their position dominate. And that will make it easier for Syria to fall apart.