The Russia- and Iran-backed Damascus regime has accelerated preparations for an operation on Idlib, while western countries started to issue warnings. The UN Security Council will convene next week to discuss the “humanitarian situation” in Syria.

US, FRANCE AND UK ISSUE JOINT STATEMENT

The US, France and the UK have issued a joint statement saying that they are “concerned” regarding a military operation against Idlib.

The 3 permanent members of the UN Security Council pointed out the humanitarian outcome of such an operation and said, “We would also like to stress that we are concerned for the use of chemical weapons again.” All 3 countries added that they “will continue with the resolve to take action if the Assad regime uses chemical weapons again.” The countries also warned that they will “retaliate appropriately against any and all use of chemical weapons”.

US President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton warned that they will “respond very harshly” if the Syrian regime uses chemical weapons in Idlib. John Bolton spoke to the press during a visit in Jerusalem and said he hopes the previous US strikes against the Syrian regime have acted as a deterrent. Bolton warned the Damascus administration in no unclear terms: “If the Syrian regime uses chemical weapons, we will respond very harshly,” said Bolton and added: “They will have to think long and hard before making any decisions.”

ATTACKS AGAINST THE REGIME

The US, France and the UK had carried out a coordinated attack against the Syrian regime on April 14, 2018. The claims that chemical weapons were used in Duma, close to Damascus, was cited as the reason for the attack. They had announced that 3 positions connected to Syria’s chemical weapons programme had been bombed.

LONDON IS WITHDRAWING FROM IDLIB

Meanwhile, the British newspaper The Times published an article on August 21 that said the British government is to reduce their support programmes for the “rebel-held” regions in Syria. The United Kingdom has been financing local activity in the Idlib region. US officials had also announced in May that US humanitarian aid would not be provided for the Idlib region anymore.

These “rebel-held” regions are in actuality held by Al Nusra and their alliances, who are directly supported by Turkey.

TURKEY WILL BE THE COUNTRY MOST AFFECTED

The only country to be truly worried about a possible operation against Idlib seems to be Turkey. The country has started attempts to prevent the operation, through Russia in particular. The goal in Idlib stands out as the gangs that Turkey directly supports, which will mean Turkey will be affected on various aspects by the operation. On one hand, their support for gangs will be targeted by the operation, and on the other, the operation may trigger a new wave of migration into Turkey.