New wars are expected in the Middle East post-ISIS. The current war waged under the pretense of the war on terror will transform into a hegemonic war in time.

This analysis belongs to Germany’s former Foreign Minister and Greens leader for some 20 years, Joshka Fischer.

Fischer wrote about the new war in the Middle East in his analysis published on Medias24. Fischer pointed to the regional balance and the actors of the war, and stated that the instability in the region is a positive development for Iran.

Fischer went deeper and analyzed the developments in the region from a historic standpoint. A summary of his analyses are as follows:

“The next chapter in the history of the Middle East after the removal of the Islamic State (ISIS) will be determined by the open and direct conflict between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran to achieve regional dominance.

This masked conflict has been continued through illicit means, and mostly via proxy until now. The two globally active forces have chosen their sides already, although there is no open conflict yet: The US stands with Saudi Arabia, while Russia stands with Iran.

The current ‘war on terror’ will transform into a hegemonic conflict in time. With Saudi Arabia and four of their Sunni allies isolating Qatar, partly due to its relationship with Iran, this conflict reached its first potentially critical point in the Persian Gulf, the center of the region.

All direct military conflicts with Iran pose the risk of engulfing the region, in a wider scale than all the wars in the Middle East.

Obama’s successor Donald Trump also campaigned to withdraw from the region. Since the elections, he launched missiles into Syria, he made general commitments in favor of Saudi Arabia and its allies, and joined in the escalation of a verbal war with Iran.

Trump is clearly facing a learning curve when it comes to the Middle East: But this region will not wait until he is fully versed. There is no reason to be optimistic.”