Elections in Iraq: possible outcomes
Iraq and the South Kurdistan are going to the polls to renew the Iraqi parliament on 12 May.
Iraq and the South Kurdistan are going to the polls to renew the Iraqi parliament on 12 May. After the fall of the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein following the US intervention in 2003, the Iraqi and South Kurdistan peoples go to an election for the fourth time.
328 seats will be renewed in the Iraqi parliament. With a few weeks to go before the elections, the first opinion polls and forecasts have emerged.
According to these opinion polls, the Kurdish bloc lists (who had secured 62 deputies in 2014) will lose 5 deputies, securing 59 seats. In the elections held in 2014 the Kurds had won a total of 62 seats: apart from the 44 won in Hewler, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok, they had got 8 seats in Kirkuk, 8 in Mosul, and 2 in Diyala.
Opinions polls and political experts and analysts indicate that the intervention made by the Iraqi central government on the Kirkuk controversial have affected the Kurdish representation. The demography of these controversial areas has begun to change after Iraq and the Hashd al-Shaabi militias took control of them. It is estimated that 50 to 120 thousand voters had to leave their homes in these regions.
KDP boycotting elections in Kirkuk
The KDP announced that it would not participate in the elections in Kirkuk in a sign of boycott. It is estimated that the votes of the KDP in Kirkuk will go to the Justice and Democracy Coalition, the Kurdish Islamic Community (Komel) and the Movement for Change (Goran).
KDP Kirkuk spokesperson Muhammad Hurşid argued that they would not support any party in Kirkuk and that their vote would not go any party. Despite Hurşid's statements, opinions and estimates continue to suggest that the KDP voters will go to Kurdish lists in Kirkuk.
New lists and some surprise expected
Opinion polls and surveys did not include new lists in the Kurdish bloc that might as well represent a surprise. Newaye Nu, the New Generation Movement, Tevgera Azadi, Berey Democratic a Gel run in both Iraq and South Kurdistan.
According to opinion polls, no bloc will reach the absolute majority.
The results of the surveys conducted by some research institutions based in Baghdad, Hewler and Sulaymaniyah on voters suggest the following trends:
Kurdish Bloc: 57
Nasi Coalition headed by Haidar Al-Abadi: 55
Fetih Coalition headed by Hadi Amri: 43
Sairun Coalition headed by Muktad al Sadr: 35
State of Law headed by Nuri Maliki: 34
National Hikme Movement headed by Ammar Hekim: 22
Wataniya Alliance headed by Iyad Allawi: 35
Iraqi Decision Coalition headed by Osama Nuceyfi: 10
Solution headed by Cemal Kerbuli: 12